“The decision depends more on your financial readiness than market predictions. Audit your numbers to see if you can comfortably service the loan today.”
Melbourne’s market heading into the second half of 2026 is at an inflection point. Prices are recovering, rates are elevated but potentially near peak, and supply is improving. Property prices may rise or fall depending on market conditions. The case for buying now and the case for waiting both have substance.
The case for buying now
Melbourne property is at a relative discount to Sydney and Brisbane that is historically unusual. If Melbourne’s recovery accelerates in H2 2026 as some forecasters predict, buyers who waited may be entering at higher prices. Multiple government entry schemes are currently available that may be revised in future years. And every month renting is a month of equity not building.
The case for waiting
If the RBA raises rates again in June and potentially August, borrowing capacity falls further. Repayments on loans entered now are at their highest point in the cycle. Waiting 6–12 months may present more favourable conditions if rates stabilise or begin to fall and if Melbourne listings increase.
What the decision actually depends on
Your decision should be grounded in your numbers, not in a market prediction. The relevant questions: Can I comfortably service this loan if rates rise by a further 0.5%? Does my borrowing capacity reach the property I need? Do I have adequate savings for deposit plus upfront costs plus a 3-month emergency buffer? If yes to all three, the timing question becomes secondary to the financial readiness question.
The one thing that makes waiting costly
Waiting without a concrete plan is different from waiting with a specific trigger — ‘I’ll buy when I have $60,000 saved’ or ‘I’ll review after the June RBA decision.’ Indefinite waiting often results in indefinite deferral while prices and market conditions continue to change around you.
→ You may wish to speak with a licensed mortgage broker to assess your personal circumstances. This is general information only. Individual circumstances vary and scheme details change regularly. Verify current eligibility, caps, and terms with official sources before making decisions. Speak with a licensed mortgage broker for advice tailored to your situation. All loans are subject to lender approval.
Sources: RBA Cash Rate Target, May 2026; CoreLogic, Melbourne Dwelling Values May 2026; Housing Australia, First Home Guarantee 2025–26; ASIC MoneySmart, Buying a Home 2025.
